Thursday, June 12, 2008

What are the chances that we will win...

DEM Total 289
Solid Dem (Above 80%) 190
Lean Dem (80% to 60%) 99
Toss-up (60% to 40%) 22
Lean Rep (40% to 20%) 70
Solid Rep (Below 20%) 157
REP Total 227

Expected Value of EC (% to win times # of EC) 288.4 (0.5)

Dems to Win: 65.0%

State Electoral Votes % on Intrade as of 11-Jun
DISTRICTOFCOLUMBIA 3 96%
ILLINOIS 21 96%
HAWAII 4 95%
MASSACHUSETTS 12 94%
RHODEISLAND 4 93%
MARYLAND 10 92%
DELAWARE 3 90%
VERMONT 3 90%
WASHINGTON 11 90%
MAINE 4 89%
CONNECTICUT 7 89%
NEWYORK 31 89%
NEWJERSEY 15 87%
CALIFORNIA 55 86%
OREGON 7 85%
IOWA 7 80%
MINNESOTA 10 79%
WISCONSIN 10 75%
PENNSYLVANIA 21 72%
MICHIGAN 17 70%
COLORADO 9 66%
OHIO 20 62%
NEWMEXICO 5 62%
NEWHAMPSHIRE 4 54%
VIRGINIA 13 52%
NEVADA 5 48%
MISSOURI 11 40%
FLORIDA 27 28%
INDIANA 11 23%
NTH.CAROLINA 15 23%
ARKANSAS 6 20%
MONTANA 3 19%
WESTVIRGINIA 5 18%
GEORGIA 15 17%
NEBRASKA 5 15%
STH.DAKOTA 3 15%
KANSAS 6 15%
OKLAHOMA 7 13%
LOUISIANA 9 13%
MISSISSIPPI 6 12%
TEXAS 34 11%
TENNESSEE 11 11%
ALASKA 3 10%
STH.CAROLINA 8 10%
ARIZONA 10 10%
WYOMING 3 10%
KENTUCKY 8 9%
UTAH 5 8%
NTH.DAKOTA 3 7%
IDAHO 4 7%
ALABAMA 9 6%

Courtesy of Dan Mintz